Real yields

I have recorded yields of Lauranne variety for 7 years. Production is negligible from year one to year four. An hectare with 123 trees produces an average of 20 kilos of almond kernel in year five, 82 kilos in year six and 210 kilos in year seven. This data may fit a logistic curve.

Yield

According to the model, the orchard reaches its production potential after year eight. The final yield of an orchard is 290 kilos of kerner per hectare. Harvesting is profitable from year six on, since hiring a machine to do this job costs around 80 € per hectare and almond price is around 5 € per kilo. Public subsidies are close to maintenance costs. All in all, 1400 € per hectare is the sensible annual profit to be expected from a mature orchard.

(Update: Reported yields for year 9 confirmed the logistic model parameters for this orchard. Prices were between 3 and 4 euro per kilo in 2020 and 2021)

IMG_20190829_123657.jpg
Mechanical harvest. Seven years old almond orchard.

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